I like the Indians at home as I think Drew Smyly 2.70 ERA on the season is a bit misleading with his tERA at 4.27. Corey Kluber comes in with a 3.38 ERA, but now he's favored, but I still think we get value here since his tERA is 2.64 and he also has a 2.68 xFIP which are more indicative of where his ERA should be. Kluber has always been a strong pitcher at home and he had 3 quality starts against the Tigers last year at home and I see no reason why that should not happen again tonight. Kluber will also be backed by a bullpen that's a tad bit better in ERA than the Tigers on the season so far.

Cleveland is also 20-7 in their last 27 home games vs. a LH starter, 43-20 in their last 63 as a home favorite and 17-8 in Klubers last 25 starts. Don't underestimate the Tigers just not getting up for this game after sweeping Boston in Boston over the weekend. It is a Monday game and I don't feel like they really fear the Indians, but the Indians really need a win here badly and I believe they will produce it.

Where to find Freddy?